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Covid-19 calculator voor buiten

Estimation of COVID-19 aerosol transmission outdoors (Skagit Choir Repeat) during daytime, relatively crowded conditions (1.3 persons / m2) - S

Input Parameters

Value

Value in other units

Source

Surface area

sq ft

=

m2

Just assuming a value, similar to choir outbreak case

Height

ft

=

m

Assuming that air within this height can get mixed to respiratory height

Volume

m3

Infected people

person

Just assuming a value, similar to choir outbreak case

Susceptible people

people

Just assuming a value, similar to choir outbreak case

Breathing rate (index case)

1.1

m3 / h

Estimated from Miller et al. (2020), for someone singing

Breathing rate (susceptible)

m3 / h

Estimated from Miller et al. (2020), for someone singing

Duration of event

min

h

Just assuming a value, similar to choir outbreak case

Wind speed

km/ h

m/s

1/2 of low end of average daytime US wind speed per https://sciencing.com/average-daily-wind-speed-24011.html

Ventilation w/ outside air

h-1

Same as "air changes per hour", calculated approximately from the wind speed

Decay rate of the virus

h-1

Estimated (UV index 5, default T & RH) from https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/sars-airborne-calculator

Deposition to surfaces

h-1

Buonnano et al. (2020), Miller et al. (2020). Could vary 0.24-1.5 h-1, depending on particle size range

Additional control measures

h-1

E.g. UV disinfection, personal HEPA air cleaner, etc.

Total first order loss rate

h-1

CONDITIONAL RESULT: Case with one person infected, everyone else is susceptible

Quanta emission rate (infected)

q h-1

Just assuming a value, similar to choir outbreak case. This should be an upper limit for COVID-19. See Readme

Mass efficiency for emission

No masks were worn, for comparison with choir outbreak

Net emission rate

q h-1

Includes the number of infected people above

Avg Quanta Concentration

q m-3

Equation (4) in Miller et al. (2020)

Quanta inhaled per person

quanta

Probability of infection (1 person)

Equation (1) in Miller et al. (2020)

Number of COVID cases arising